Strikes on Rafah, Long-Range Weapons in Ukraine, and a South Africa Election
On this news episode of American Prestige, headlines from around the globe.
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Here's where to find podcasts from The Nation. Political talk without the boring parts, featuring the writers, activists and artists who shape the news, from a progressive perspective.
Danny and Derek are innocent, with news to boot. This week: in Gaza, Israeli bombs displaced Palestinians in tents (0:29) despite the ICJ ruling calling for a halt in that operation (4:36), global opinion on Palestine continues to shift (7:12), Egyptian-Israeli border clashes (13:59), and more; some developments regarding Iran’s nuclear program (18:19); a summit attended by representatives of China, South Korea, and Japan (22:35); the DPRK/North Korea has a failed satellite launch (25:55); an update on Sudan, namely the besieged city of El Fasher (27:56); the Burkina Faso military junta delays the transition to civilian control (29:54); in Ukraine news, Vladimir Putin hints at a ceasefire recognizing the current territorial status (34:22) while Antony Blinken hints at the US greenlighting Ukraine using American long-range weapons to strike Russia (36:09); in Mexico, a presidential election on Sunday (39:56) while Mexico City is on the verge of losing its water supply (41:59).
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![](https://www.thenation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/GettyImages-2154776380-1.jpg)
Smoke billows following Israeli bombardment as displaced Palestinians move in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, on May 31, 2024.
(Eyad Baba / AFP)This week on American Prestige: In Gaza, Israeli bombs displaced Palestinians in tents (0:29), despite the ICJ ruling calling for a halt in that operation (4:36), global opinion on Palestine continues to shift (7:12), and there are clashes along the Egyptian-Israeli border (13:59); some developments emerge regarding Iran’s nuclear program (18:19); a summit is attended by representatives of China, South Korea, and Japan (22:35); the DPRK/North Korea has a failed satellite launch (25:55); we have an update on the besieged Sudanese city of El Fasher (27:56); the Burkina Faso military junta delays the transition to civilian control (29:54); Ukrainian President Vladimir Putin hints at a cease-fire recognizing the current territorial status (34:22), while Antony Blinken hints that the US may greenlight Ukraine’s using American long-range weapons to strike Russia (36:09); in Mexico, a presidential election will be held on Sunday (39:56), while Mexico City is on the verge of losing its water supply (41:59).
![The Nation Podcasts](https://media.redcircle.com/images/2024/1/22/16/305287dd-3c1e-4d50-8ef8-939b191115b7__ac35afe0-783b-4422-a72e-e6c64f20fcc0_38137755.jpg)
Here's where to find podcasts from The Nation. Political talk without the boring parts, featuring the writers, activists and artists who shape the news, from a progressive perspective.
On this episode of American Prestige, Danny and Derek welcome back AP mega-guest Spencer Ackerman, author of the Forever Wars newsletter and soon-to-be-published issues of Marvel Comics’ Iron Man. The group explores Spencer’s inspiration to pursue more work in the world of comic books, writing for a character who is a defense contractor, bringing left-wing messaging into the medium, the sand box of Marvel Comics vs. the behemoth of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, plus Spencer’s impressions on some major current events.
NOTE: This interview was recorded on 8/30/24, prior to reports that the Israeli military had recovered the bodies of six hostages inside Gaza.
Click hear to learn how to pre-order Iron Man & get free merch!
More of Spencer’s work:
Further Reading:
- Annie Nocenti, journalist, writer, editor and filmmaker
- Six Stops on the National Security Tour by Miriam Pemberton
Â
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This transcript was computer-generated and may contain errors.
(00:00:21):
Hello, Prestige Heads, and welcome to American Prestige.
(00:00:23):
I’m Danny Bessner,
(00:00:24):
here as always with my friend and comrade Derek Davison,
(00:00:27):
and we are excited to bring you the news.
(00:00:29):
Derek, let’s start with Gaza, and let’s start with the strike on Rafah and the fallout from said strike.
(00:00:36):
Yes, on Sunday, late Sunday, I believe, the Israelis carried out an airstrike
(00:00:43):
against what they said was a Hamas target in southern Gaza to the west of Rafah.
(00:00:51):
That airstrike…
(00:00:54):
caused a fire that swept through part of an encampment,
(00:00:58):
a tent encampment set up for people who had fled Rafah,
(00:01:01):
fled the Israeli assault on Rafah,
(00:01:03):
killed at least 45 people in very gruesome manner in many cases.
(00:01:10):
It has generated a new wave of international outrage in part, and we’ll get to this, but in part because
(00:01:18):
it took place two days after the international court of justice ordered the israeli
(00:01:22):
military to stop fighting in rafa to halt its operations so um you know it’s sort
(00:01:27):
of insult compounding you know compounding uh everything else
(00:01:31):
It’s hell on earth.
(00:01:33):
We went into the house and did not find anyone,
(00:01:36):
Fadi Dukan says,
(00:01:37):
when we checked over the wall and found a girl and a young man who had been cut
(00:01:41):
into pieces.
(00:01:42):
The Israelis, as I say, claim they were attacking a Hamas facility.
(00:01:45):
They say they killed two senior officials in Hamas in the strike.
(00:01:51):
They have since released evidence purportedly showing that they used weapons.
(00:01:57):
U.S.
(00:01:58):
munitions,
(00:01:59):
go figure,
(00:01:59):
but also smaller munitions,
(00:02:02):
smaller bombs that would indicate a targeted,
(00:02:06):
quote unquote,
(00:02:07):
targeted strike.
(00:02:08):
They’re claiming that what happened was they dropped these bombs.
(00:02:15):
on the hamas facility that should have just taken that facility out that somehow
(00:02:21):
this triggered a secondary explosion or explosions in perhaps a nearby ammunition
(00:02:26):
dump and those secondary explosions then were to direct led directly into the the
(00:02:32):
fire for the israelis it seems like they
(00:02:35):
want to say that this absolves them of blame for the fire rather than fixating
(00:02:41):
blame on them as the prime mover that caused the fire.
(00:02:44):
I don’t quite understand how the concept of cause and effect works in the Israeli military,
(00:02:50):
but to me,
(00:02:52):
it would indicate that they did cause the fire.
(00:02:57):
There’s been,
(00:02:58):
as I say,
(00:02:59):
a good deal of international outrage,
(00:03:01):
particularly in as much as these were people who were already displaced by the
(00:03:05):
Israeli operation in Rafah in the first place,
(00:03:08):
who had gone to Al-Malasi,
(00:03:10):
which is this coastal region near Rafah that the Israelis claim is safe.
(00:03:15):
They claim it’s a safe zone for people to evacuate to.
(00:03:18):
And they were killed anyway.
(00:03:20):
I mean, they were killed in this place.
(00:03:21):
They were attacked and killed in the following day, I believe, on Monday, Monday into Tuesday.
(00:03:29):
The Israelis continue to bombard Mawassi on Mawassi.
(00:03:32):
There were at least 21 people killed in subsequent, I believe, shelling.
(00:03:38):
that hit the camp.
(00:03:38):
The Israelis are again denying that they had anything to do with this subsequent attack.
(00:03:44):
I don’t know who else would be shelling the camp at this point,
(00:03:46):
but that’s their story and they’re sticking to it.
(00:03:50):
Again, kind of just compounding this on an international level, and I think we can get into the
(00:03:58):
The shifting,
(00:03:59):
I think,
(00:03:59):
of some of the ways that this conflict in Gaza,
(00:04:04):
this massacre,
(00:04:05):
this atrocity in Gaza is being covered in a little bit.
(00:04:09):
But this certainly was a major, I think, moment on par with…
(00:04:16):
the attack that hit the the world central kitchen convoy on par with some you know
(00:04:20):
the uh the refugee camp attack fairly early on in jabalia uh not long after the
(00:04:25):
october 7th attacks in terms of just kind of uh spiking what what israel is doing
(00:04:31):
in gaza to to the forefront of international consciousness what about the
(00:04:37):
international court of justice ruling that just came down
(00:04:40):
Yes,
(00:04:41):
I alluded to that,
(00:04:42):
but on Friday,
(00:04:43):
the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to halt its military offensive in Rafah.
(00:04:50):
This is the result of the South African government,
(00:04:54):
which brought months ago a case to the ICJ over Israel’s actions in Gaza,
(00:05:01):
arguing that they violate the International Genocide Convention.
(00:05:05):
Um,
(00:05:06):
they had gone back to the court asking for a new set of emergency orders dealing
(00:05:10):
with the Rafa operation.
(00:05:12):
Uh, the court, there was, it was unclear whether the court would comply with that, but they did.
(00:05:18):
And they in plain text seem to have given, uh,
(00:05:22):
the South African government what it wanted, which was an order for Israel to stop what it’s doing.
(00:05:27):
The Israelis have, of course, not stopped what they’re doing.
(00:05:30):
The Biden administration,
(00:05:32):
which hitherto,
(00:05:33):
I think,
(00:05:34):
probably would have said that obeying binding ICJ rulings is one of the rules of
(00:05:39):
the rules-based order,
(00:05:40):
has now thrown that out the window,
(00:05:42):
apparently,
(00:05:43):
and is going to back Israel on this.
(00:05:45):
So is the UK and other Western governments.
(00:05:48):
Not all, but
(00:05:49):
You know, some at least have have decided to stick it out.
(00:05:53):
The Israelis are justifying this on a what I would say is a particularly
(00:06:00):
tendentious reading of the decision the court
(00:06:05):
The full text or the relevant passage here is the court ordered or said that Israel,
(00:06:11):
and I’m quoting here,
(00:06:12):
must immediately halt its military offensive and any other action in the Rafah governorate,
(00:06:17):
which may inflict on the Palestinian group in Gaza conditions of life that could
(00:06:20):
bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part.
(00:06:24):
To me,
(00:06:25):
that means if you’re doing anything in Rafah that could kill one Palestinian,
(00:06:28):
you are bringing about the physical destruction in part of that community.
(00:06:32):
So you have to stop, but not to the Israelis.
(00:06:35):
They’re just saying basically,
(00:06:38):
yes,
(00:06:38):
we’re attacking Rafah,
(00:06:39):
but we’re not doing it to bring about the physical destruction in whole or in part
(00:06:43):
of the Palestinian community in Gaza.
(00:06:45):
So we can keep doing what we’re doing just, you know, because we say so.
(00:06:49):
Essentially, we say we’re not doing it for these reasons.
(00:06:53):
And so basically,
(00:06:53):
We don’t, it’s, we’re okay under the court ruling.
(00:06:57):
I think,
(00:06:57):
again,
(00:06:58):
that’s a bad faith reading of the decision,
(00:07:00):
but that’s the loophole that they’re trying to create and drive through.
(00:07:04):
No, I don’t believe it, Derek.
(00:07:08):
Tell me the truth.
(00:07:09):
What am I thinking?
(00:07:10):
We’ll definitely keep on following that one.
(00:07:12):
What about global opinion generally?
(00:07:14):
We wrote on our sheet, global opinion shifting?
(00:07:17):
Yeah,
(00:07:18):
I just want to consider,
(00:07:19):
this is for me to sort of,
(00:07:21):
I think we need to take stock of the last couple of weeks.
(00:07:24):
Wow, Derek, this isn’t your personal diary.
(00:07:26):
Bring it correct next time.
(00:07:29):
I like to use this show to collect my thoughts.
(00:07:31):
So I think we should take stock here of what’s happened over the past,
(00:07:38):
Two weeks, we’ve learned that the International Criminal Court is going for arrest warrants.
(00:07:43):
The chief prosecutor,
(00:07:44):
Karim Khan,
(00:07:44):
is going for arrest warrants against Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Galant.
(00:07:48):
We’ve learned that the International Court of Justice is ordering the Israelis to
(00:07:52):
stop what they’re doing in Rafah because it is presumably in danger of violating
(00:07:59):
the 1948 Genocide Convention.
(00:08:01):
And we have…
(00:08:03):
seen three European countries, Norway, Ireland, and Spain, recognize Palestine as a state.
(00:08:13):
They did that this week.
(00:08:14):
They announced it last week.
(00:08:15):
They did it officially this week.
(00:08:17):
We’ve also seen the Slovenian government say that it is going to recognize Palestine probably next month.
(00:08:23):
And I just want to consider how far this has shifted
(00:08:30):
In the last I mean,
(00:08:31):
based on looking back to where we were on October 7th and October 8th,
(00:08:36):
when those attacks took place in southern Israel and the outpouring of global
(00:08:40):
support for Israel and goodwill and condolences and,
(00:08:45):
you know,
(00:08:46):
all of the just lockstep support for Israel that we saw at that time.
(00:08:54):
compared to where we are now,
(00:08:56):
where this is,
(00:08:58):
you know,
(00:08:59):
just these major international events are taking place to condemn Israel,
(00:09:05):
to recognize Palestine.
(00:09:06):
None of them are going to have a huge tangible impact.
(00:09:09):
I don’t want to, you know, blow smoke about that, but they are symbolically huge.
(00:09:13):
And the amount of goodwill, I think, that the Israelis have burned through
(00:09:18):
in the brutality of their campaign in Gaza since October 7th.
(00:09:23):
You have to just sort of drop your jaw and look at this.
(00:09:28):
It is stunning to me that this is where we are,
(00:09:31):
that we have countries going as far as to recognize a Palestinian state in response
(00:09:37):
to what they’ve seen.
(00:09:38):
Not the United States, of course.
(00:09:39):
We don’t get into that sort of thing.
(00:09:41):
Yeah,
(00:09:41):
and we’ll see how long that lasts and to what degree that has practical effects on
(00:09:45):
the ground or even in the medium term.
(00:09:47):
I think that’s an open question.
(00:09:49):
Let’s talk about the humanitarian situation in Rafah and Biden’s so-called red lines.
(00:09:55):
Yes.
(00:09:56):
I mean, the assault on Rafah has continued unabated since Friday.
(00:10:00):
It’s continued for a couple of weeks now at this point.
(00:10:05):
There are Israeli tanks reportedly in central Rafah.
(00:10:08):
There are you know,
(00:10:10):
the Israelis have displaced around one million people,
(00:10:16):
according to the United Nations.
(00:10:19):
They are devastating this place that the Biden administration supposedly set out a
(00:10:27):
red line about in conversations with the Israelis and publicly that said,
(00:10:33):
we don’t think a full ground assault in Rafah is something we could support and we
(00:10:39):
don’t agree with the Israelis doing it.
(00:10:41):
This is a red line for us.
(00:10:43):
Now that the Israelis have done it, clearly done it,
(00:10:46):
The the line out of the Biden administration is just basically this this doesn’t
(00:10:51):
this wasn’t what we were talking about.
(00:10:53):
We weren’t talking about what they’re doing now.
(00:10:55):
We were talking about something else.
(00:10:56):
I don’t know what they could have been.
(00:10:58):
The president wasn’t moving the stick anywhere.
(00:11:02):
He was talking about major ground operations in Rafah.
(00:11:05):
proper, which is what we’ve been saying all along.
(00:11:08):
When he was referring to population centers, that’s exactly what he was referring to.
(00:11:12):
As I said in my opening statement,
(00:11:14):
what happened on Sunday shows just how difficult military operations are in a
(00:11:19):
densely populated area.
(00:11:21):
And yes, of course, RAFA is a densely populated area.
(00:11:24):
But there was a piece in the Washington Post a few days ago that quoted David Satterfield,
(00:11:32):
who was most recently the humanitarian point person for Gaza,
(00:11:39):
who was…
(00:11:41):
speaking, I think, at an event or, yes, it was an event for the Council on Foreign Relations.
(00:11:49):
Not,
(00:11:50):
you know,
(00:11:50):
somebody at the upper echelons of the Biden administration,
(00:11:52):
not somebody speaking to reporters necessarily for posterity,
(00:11:56):
but his comments at this event on Friday were basically like everything we said we
(00:12:02):
were concerned about in RAFA,
(00:12:04):
what has happened has been worse than what we feared.
(00:12:08):
And yet somehow this is not
(00:12:10):
trip the red lines and as i say one million people according to the un displaced uh
(00:12:15):
there’s been no systematic evacuation as far as we know there’s no been no effort
(00:12:21):
to to you know extra effort to meet the humanitarian needs of these people not only
(00:12:25):
that but humanitarian aid is not coming in through the rafa checkpoint anymore
(00:12:29):
because of this operation
(00:12:32):
The Doctors Without Borders said there’s been no meaningful humanitarian aid come
(00:12:35):
into Gaza in weeks in a statement they issued this week.
(00:12:40):
So the humanitarian situation has gotten worse.
(00:12:42):
That was supposedly another red line that the Israelis had to have
(00:12:46):
a credible evacuation plan that would take care of the people that they were displacing.
(00:12:51):
Uh,
(00:12:51):
so none of it,
(00:12:53):
none of what the Israelis have done have,
(00:12:55):
uh,
(00:12:55):
have met,
(00:12:56):
uh,
(00:12:56):
the conditions that the Biden administration set out.
(00:12:58):
And yet they’ve said nothing except, uh, yeah, this is all fine with us.
(00:13:03):
We’re, we’re okay with it.
(00:13:04):
Uh, now we hear, um,
(00:13:07):
The Israeli national security advisor,
(00:13:10):
Zaki Hanegbi,
(00:13:11):
said on Wednesday that he thinks that the annihilation of Gaza is going to take at
(00:13:17):
least through the end of 2024.
(00:13:18):
I don’t know that he means at this pace or if we’re going to see tent massacres on
(00:13:25):
a weekly basis from now until then.
(00:13:27):
But certainly the conflict at a macro level, he says, is going to go on for at least that long.
(00:13:35):
Just coincidentally,
(00:13:36):
that would be long enough to maybe help Donald Trump get elected president,
(00:13:40):
because I think Benjamin Netanyahu would appreciate that.
(00:13:43):
Joe Biden doesn’t seem to really care all that much about preventing it.
(00:13:47):
So that’s that’s another thing that I think would you would think would draw some
(00:13:53):
response or some reaction,
(00:13:54):
some negative reaction from the Biden administration.
(00:13:56):
And yet, you know, silence crickets.
(00:14:00):
Let’s talk about these clashes that Egypt and Israel have had on the border.
(00:14:05):
Yes, there was one clash on Sunday night around the same night as the Rafah tent airstrike massacre.
(00:14:15):
And we don’t know if these were connected,
(00:14:17):
but there was some sort of shooting incident involving Egyptian border guards and
(00:14:21):
Israeli soldiers.
(00:14:22):
one Egyptian border guard was killed.
(00:14:25):
Both countries say they are investigating this.
(00:14:27):
Tensions have been high on the border since the Israelis seized the Gazan side of the Rafah checkpoint.
(00:14:35):
The Egyptians closed the checkpoint from their side.
(00:14:38):
And so,
(00:14:38):
as I say,
(00:14:39):
there’s been no,
(00:14:40):
between those two events,
(00:14:41):
there’s been no aid coming through and the two governments have sort of traded accusations.
(00:14:45):
The Israelis, you know, say they’re ready to let aid through, but the Egyptians are stopping it.
(00:14:50):
The Egyptians say that
(00:14:52):
what the Israelis did in seizing the checkpoint was a violation of agreements that
(00:14:56):
they had between those governments.
(00:14:59):
The Israelis now say that they have taken control of the entire Philadelphia corridor,
(00:15:04):
which runs along the Gaza-Egypt border.
(00:15:07):
It’s a no-man’s land.
(00:15:09):
But the Israelis say they are in tactical control now of that border.
(00:15:12):
This is something the Egyptians did not want to see happen.
(00:15:16):
The Israelis insist they have to do it because there are tunnels that go under the
(00:15:20):
corridor where Hamas is able to smuggle weapons and other things in for its militants.
(00:15:27):
You know, this is this is all pointing toward a real deterioration in the relationship here.
(00:15:32):
I don’t know if we’re going to see other shooting incidents again.
(00:15:35):
I don’t really know what caused this one is still under investigation.
(00:15:39):
But, you know, I think it highlights how bad things have gotten.
(00:15:43):
So the pier is doing really well.
(00:15:45):
Could you give us an update on how that’s going?
(00:15:48):
Yeah, the Joe Biden Memorial Pier is not working anymore.
(00:15:52):
It lasted for, it got like a week, two weeks maybe out of it.
(00:15:57):
High seas and rough weather.
(00:15:59):
How much did that cost?
(00:16:00):
It was like $25 million.
(00:16:01):
Am I making that up?
(00:16:02):
This is interesting.
(00:16:02):
It cost, according to the figure that the Pentagon put out, maybe accidentally, it cost $320 million.
(00:16:10):
$320 million.
(00:16:13):
Yeah, which was about twice what they initially thought it was going to cost.
(00:16:17):
Of course, it’s the Pentagon.
(00:16:18):
Of course, it costs twice as much.
(00:16:19):
I saw a little snippet of a report,
(00:16:24):
I think yesterday,
(00:16:25):
where the administration is trying to cook the books basically to get the cost,
(00:16:30):
the official cost down to $80 million so that they can claim it was all worth it,
(00:16:34):
even if they only get two weeks of it.
(00:16:37):
of aid out of it.
(00:16:39):
I don’t know how they’re trying to do that or what the mechanism is,
(00:16:42):
but that is funny that you bring that up.
(00:16:47):
The pier itself has been damaged by rough seas and storms in the region.
(00:16:55):
Four U.S.
(00:16:57):
ships either ran aground or were somehow,
(00:16:59):
you know,
(00:17:00):
disabled in the course of trying to maintain the pier over the past week or so.
(00:17:05):
And parts of the pier,
(00:17:06):
as I say,
(00:17:06):
have actually need to be towed ashore to be repaired before they can be put back out.
(00:17:13):
And the pier can, I guess, resume operations to the extent that any of its operations would.
(00:17:19):
were underway in the first place.
(00:17:23):
The administration says it’s brought hundreds of metric tons of aid ashore through the pier.
(00:17:29):
It’s unclear how much of it has actually gotten to anybody.
(00:17:32):
A lot of it was,
(00:17:35):
there have been convoys,
(00:17:37):
small convoys of trucks coming off of the pier to a UN,
(00:17:42):
I think World Food Program organization
(00:17:44):
warehouse in Dar al-Balaw.
(00:17:45):
One of those,
(00:17:47):
I think a couple of days after the pier came online,
(00:17:48):
was simply ransacked by Palestinians who were starving and took the food.
(00:17:55):
The others,
(00:17:56):
I think,
(00:17:56):
have more or less proceeded safely to the facility,
(00:18:00):
but I don’t know how much of it’s been distributed or how much of it has even
(00:18:04):
gotten off the pier for that matter.
(00:18:06):
Well, it was a worthy investment.
(00:18:08):
Let’s talk about the Iranians.
(00:18:10):
Much more cost effective than just telling the Israelis to open up the goddamn
(00:18:14):
checkpoints and let the aid in.
(00:18:15):
Oh, most definitely.
(00:18:16):
Overland.
(00:18:16):
Yeah, no, that couldn’t happen.
(00:18:18):
Come on, get real.
(00:18:19):
Let’s talk about Iran’s nuclear program.
(00:18:22):
Yeah,
(00:18:23):
the International Atomic Energy Agency,
(00:18:25):
as it does,
(00:18:26):
put out a new quarterly report this week on Iran’s nuclear program that found Iran
(00:18:31):
stockpiling substantially more enriched uranium than it had found in the previous
(00:18:37):
report in February.
(00:18:39):
It’s holding a little bit over 6,200 kilograms of enriched uranium.
(00:18:45):
Most of that is at the low level that you would use for reactor fuel,
(00:18:48):
but that’s about 675 or so kilograms more than it had in February.
(00:18:57):
Greater concern is that the Iranians are holding about 142 kilograms of uranium
(00:19:06):
enriched to 60%,
(00:19:07):
which is considered highly enriched uranium.
(00:19:10):
That’s about 20 kilograms more than they had according to the IAEA’s previous report.
(00:19:17):
At 60% enriched uranium, you’re not far from weapons grade.
(00:19:23):
I mean,
(00:19:23):
you have to get to 90% or above for a true nuclear warhead type of material,
(00:19:30):
but it’s not that difficult to further refine from 60% to 90%.
(00:19:35):
It takes just a fairly short time in a centrifuge.
(00:19:39):
So with this amount, they estimate that the Iranians have enough
(00:19:46):
highly enriched uranium for about three nuclear weapons if they were to decide,
(00:19:53):
we’ve had enough of this,
(00:19:54):
we’re going to build our own nuclear weapon.
(00:19:57):
This has enhanced or strengthened, intensified what has been a growing desire on the part of three
(00:20:08):
the three European governments that have been involved in negotiations over Iran’s
(00:20:12):
nuclear program,
(00:20:13):
that’s France,
(00:20:13):
Germany,
(00:20:13):
and the UK,
(00:20:15):
to take some action against Iran when the IAEA’s board meets next month.
(00:20:22):
They have been angling for a while to either censure Iran or do something.
(00:20:28):
There’s an array of things they could do.
(00:20:30):
They could refer the issue to the UN Security Council,
(00:20:33):
although it would probably not go anywhere after that.
(00:20:36):
But there are a number of things that they could do to sort of scold Iran for its nuclear program.
(00:20:43):
The U.S.
(00:20:43):
has been the Biden administration has been kind of pressuring them to back off.
(00:20:48):
I think they are particularly concerned about doing something at the next IAEA meeting,
(00:20:53):
which is next month.
(00:20:55):
because of the impact it could have on Iran’s presidential election now,
(00:20:59):
which is coming up since following the unexpected death of Ebrahim Raisi is coming
(00:21:05):
up on June 28th.
(00:21:07):
But it sounds like,
(00:21:08):
according to Reuters at least,
(00:21:09):
that the three European governments are going to go ahead anyway at this point,
(00:21:14):
even though the U.S.
(00:21:16):
is
(00:21:16):
opposed to what they’re doing.
(00:21:18):
And what it looks like they’re doing,
(00:21:20):
they’re circulating a resolution anyway that would authorize the IAEA to do a full
(00:21:25):
comprehensive report on Iran’s nuclear program that is outside the scope of,
(00:21:30):
beyond the scope,
(00:21:31):
I guess,
(00:21:32):
of its quarterly reports and would be more detailed,
(00:21:34):
more comprehensive.
(00:21:38):
That that would, first of all, probably be seen as intrusive by the Iranians.
(00:21:42):
And second of all,
(00:21:43):
that could itself lead to further action like censoring Iran at the IAEA or
(00:21:48):
something like that.
(00:21:49):
So it would probably irritate Tehran, to say the least.
(00:21:54):
And that could it’s unclear where that would go.
(00:22:00):
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Thank you for listening.
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And now back to the show.
(00:22:34):
Thank you, Derek.
(00:22:35):
Let’s talk about this China, South Korea and Japan summit.
(00:22:40):
Yes.
(00:22:42):
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol hosted the prime minister of Japan,
(00:22:47):
Kishida Fumio,
(00:22:49):
and the premier of China,
(00:22:50):
Li Chang,
(00:22:51):
in Seoul on Monday.
(00:22:53):
This was the first trilateral summit between senior officials in those three countries since 2019.
(00:23:00):
It does have a sort of new Cold War flavor in that
(00:23:06):
uh japan and south korea are increasingly uh you know concerned about china
(00:23:10):
concerned about you know kind of kind of uh making it clear that they are uh on the
(00:23:15):
u.s side of the equation and that uh that rivalry uh for the most part it sounds
(00:23:22):
like they kind of tabled uh you know kind of
(00:23:27):
what I want to say here,
(00:23:29):
ignored or decided not to have any discussions about any of the tensions that that
(00:23:33):
creates in their various relationships.
(00:23:36):
There’s no discussion of tensions in the East China Sea or any concerns about
(00:23:44):
sanctions that China has in the past imposed on South Korea or anything like that.
(00:23:48):
They kind of left all that to the side and talked about commercial relations
(00:23:55):
vague statements about collaborating on a variety of things.
(00:24:01):
They did talk about North Korea.
(00:24:03):
This was the one sensitive issue that they talked about.
(00:24:05):
They issued a joint statement, which was somewhat interesting, that maintained or stressed
(00:24:12):
the longstanding goal of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula.
(00:24:17):
It’s interesting that China was on this statement,
(00:24:20):
China,
(00:24:20):
of course,
(00:24:20):
being North Korea’s main international backer,
(00:24:24):
with maybe Russia kind of supplanting it a bit recently.
(00:24:27):
But
(00:24:28):
Uh,
(00:24:29):
I think that it does reflect the fact that,
(00:24:31):
that the Chinese government remains uneasy about the fact that North Korea has
(00:24:35):
nuclear weapons.
(00:24:36):
I mean,
(00:24:36):
that there’s,
(00:24:37):
this has always been the case,
(00:24:39):
uh,
(00:24:39):
and it hasn’t changed even though China continues to support North Korea,
(00:24:43):
uh,
(00:24:45):
and shield it somewhat from the pressure that’s levied on it by the United States,
(00:24:49):
there are still misgivings about the idea of having nuclear weapons on the Korean
(00:24:54):
Peninsula within China.
(00:24:55):
Of course, North Korea reacted badly to this.
(00:24:59):
They called the statement itself a grave political provocation.
(00:25:04):
And again,
(00:25:05):
indications of a bit of irritation,
(00:25:07):
I think,
(00:25:07):
on the part of the North Korean government with China for having…
(00:25:12):
joined onto this statement.
(00:25:15):
Speaking of North Korea, let’s continue to speak of North Korea.
(00:25:19):
Yes, I thought this was a segue.
(00:25:22):
That’s good, Derek.
(00:25:23):
You’re getting so good at podcasting three years in.
(00:25:26):
Oh, shit.
(00:25:26):
It’s our three-year anniversary soon.
(00:25:28):
What are we going to do to celebrate?
(00:25:29):
Should we finally do our live show?
(00:25:32):
Yeah, I don’t know.
(00:25:33):
Maybe, maybe.
(00:25:34):
Do you think fans will be surprised that we’ve never met in person?
(00:25:38):
That’s kind of nuts, actually.
(00:25:41):
That is kind of nuts.
(00:25:41):
Yeah, someone of our rich donors should give us a billion dollars and force us to meet.
(00:25:47):
Yeah, there you go.
(00:25:49):
I would meet you for a billion dollars.
(00:25:50):
Derek just got happier than I’ve ever seen him in my three years of working together.
(00:25:55):
Let’s talk about this North Korea satellite launch.
(00:25:58):
And unfortunately or fortunately, it failed.
(00:26:01):
Yes.
(00:26:02):
So North Korea, which has been
(00:26:05):
preparing for some time,
(00:26:07):
several days at least,
(00:26:08):
for another space launch,
(00:26:10):
and has the goal of putting,
(00:26:12):
I think,
(00:26:13):
three spy satellites into orbit this year.
(00:26:15):
They put one into orbit last year, but they’re trying to keep the dream alive, I guess.
(00:26:22):
Coinciding,
(00:26:23):
you know,
(00:26:24):
maybe intentionally,
(00:26:25):
maybe not,
(00:26:25):
who knows,
(00:26:26):
with Monday’s summit they conducted this launch that they’ve been preparing for.
(00:26:31):
It failed.
(00:26:32):
The rocket exploded during its initial stage.
(00:26:36):
What appears to have happened is that the North Koreans were trying out a new rocket,
(00:26:41):
new type of rocket,
(00:26:42):
using an engine that…
(00:26:44):
is fueled by liquid oxygen and petroleum products.
(00:26:48):
This is different from the rockets that North Korea typically uses in its space program.
(00:26:54):
Speculation, I think, justifiably is that they developed it
(00:27:00):
with Russian technical assistance.
(00:27:02):
There have been,
(00:27:02):
you know,
(00:27:04):
as part of North Korea’s deal to supply Russia with munitions for use in Ukraine,
(00:27:09):
part of what they get back supposedly is technical support from Russia related to
(00:27:15):
missiles and the space program.
(00:27:16):
And so this probably, you know, they probably developed this new rocket with help from the Russians.
(00:27:23):
That fuel mix, liquid oxygen and petroleum products is,
(00:27:28):
the kind of fuel mix that advanced space programs like Russia,
(00:27:32):
the U.S.,
(00:27:33):
China,
(00:27:33):
et cetera,
(00:27:34):
use in their rockets.
(00:27:36):
So it would represent,
(00:27:37):
and really the fact that they used it at all,
(00:27:40):
even though it failed in this initial attempt,
(00:27:43):
represents a pretty significant leap forward for the North Korean space program and
(00:27:47):
will probably pay dividends for them down the road again,
(00:27:51):
even though this particular launch didn’t work out.
(00:27:55):
Thank you, Derek.
(00:27:56):
Uh, let’s talk about Sudan and what’s been going on there.
(00:28:00):
Uh, yes.
(00:28:02):
Uh,
(00:28:02):
this is just basically,
(00:28:03):
you know,
(00:28:04):
a lot of the same stuff that we’ve been,
(00:28:07):
been talking about for a while now.
(00:28:09):
Uh,
(00:28:09):
but just to keep it on people’s radar,
(00:28:12):
um,
(00:28:13):
the rapid support forces continue to surround the city of Al-Fasher,
(00:28:16):
uh,
(00:28:18):
There are hundreds of thousands of people trapped in this encirclement in North Darfur state.
(00:28:23):
This is the one city in Darfur that remains out of Sudanese government, in Sudanese government control.
(00:28:29):
It remains out of the RSS hands.
(00:28:32):
It’s packed with people displaced from other parts of Darfur.
(00:28:36):
It had been a humanitarian hub.
(00:28:39):
The aid is no longer getting in, I think, because of the encirclement.
(00:28:44):
Tens of thousands of people were displaced
(00:28:47):
Last week,
(00:28:49):
late last week,
(00:28:51):
by the RSF from one displaced person’s camp in Al-Fasher,
(00:28:57):
the fighting got so serious that about 60,000 people out of around 100,000 people
(00:29:02):
in the camp fled.
(00:29:05):
So that’s created a worsening displacement crisis.
(00:29:09):
Now you’ve got people displaced from the displacement camp.
(00:29:13):
There are reports of dozens of people being killed on a weekly basis,
(00:29:18):
and this is without the heavy fighting.
(00:29:20):
The RSF is still,
(00:29:21):
I think,
(00:29:21):
waiting for reinforcements before it goes into the city or attempts to go in in a
(00:29:27):
big way.
(00:29:28):
But still,
(00:29:29):
there’s been enough fighting kind of on the outskirts and skirmishing that you’ve
(00:29:33):
got dozens of people being killed,
(00:29:35):
it seems like,
(00:29:35):
every week now.
(00:29:36):
Yeah.
(00:29:38):
As I said, humanitarian assistance isn’t coming in.
(00:29:41):
They’re running out of water, running out of food.
(00:29:43):
And I don’t have any big new events to talk about,
(00:29:46):
but I do think that we need to keep kind of making sure people are aware of what’s
(00:29:52):
happening here.
(00:29:54):
Thanks, Derek.
(00:29:54):
Let’s talk about Burkina Faso,
(00:29:57):
where the junta has delayed the transitional government,
(00:29:59):
the transition,
(00:30:00):
as it were.
(00:30:01):
Yes.
(00:30:01):
Over the weekend, the ruling junta of Burkina Faso decided to give itself another five years in power.
(00:30:08):
The junta, under a deal it made with the Economic Community of West African States,
(00:30:13):
after it seized power in 2022,
(00:30:17):
was supposed to be holding an election in July,
(00:30:21):
a national general election in July that would transition out of military rule to
(00:30:26):
something at least nominally civilian.
(00:30:29):
But it held what it called a national dialogue event on Saturday,
(00:30:35):
and at the end of that,
(00:30:37):
I guess it was a really interesting dialogue,
(00:30:39):
decided that it’s not ready to hold elections and it’s gonna stick around for at
(00:30:44):
least 60 months from July 2nd,
(00:30:49):
2024.
(00:30:49):
That was the specific designation that the junta made.
(00:30:55):
Of course,
(00:30:55):
the junta has quit the economic community of West African states,
(00:30:59):
you know,
(00:30:59):
quit earlier this year.
(00:31:02):
So it’s no longer,
(00:31:03):
you know,
(00:31:03):
I think no longer feels bound to that agreement anyway and just isn’t ready,
(00:31:07):
I think,
(00:31:07):
to give up power.
(00:31:10):
I talked about this with Alex Thurston a few weeks back,
(00:31:13):
and his comment,
(00:31:15):
I think,
(00:31:15):
applies here in terms of why these juntas are hanging on to power and not
(00:31:20):
transitioning to even like a staged democracy where the leaders of the junta would
(00:31:25):
still be
(00:31:27):
in power, but they would take on the trappings of civilian rule.
(00:31:31):
And I think it’s because there are still complications that can come up in a
(00:31:36):
transition like that that could result in the junta losing power.
(00:31:39):
And they just don’t want to even take that minimal risk.
(00:31:42):
So they’re not transitioning at all, essentially.
(00:31:45):
Let’s move on to the South African election.
(00:31:50):
Yes.
(00:31:51):
South African voters voted on Wednesday.
(00:31:54):
The counting is underway.
(00:31:55):
It probably will not be completed until at least Sunday for any kind of final
(00:32:00):
figure in the general election.
(00:32:03):
That is likely, according to polling, pre-election polling, likely to happen.
(00:32:08):
result in the African National Congress losing the parliamentary majority it has
(00:32:13):
held consistently since the country came out of apartheid in the 1990s.
(00:32:20):
It’s unclear how far short of a majority
(00:32:24):
uh, the ANC is going to fall, uh, assuming it does fall short of a majority.
(00:32:29):
Uh, there have been already some preliminary kind of, uh, projections made based on early results.
(00:32:36):
Uh,
(00:32:37):
and the two that I’ve seen,
(00:32:38):
one of them,
(00:32:38):
uh,
(00:32:39):
puts the ANC at just 42% in the new parliament,
(00:32:42):
uh,
(00:32:43):
seats in the new,
(00:32:44):
uh,
(00:32:44):
legislature.
(00:32:45):
One of them, the other one puts them at 45%.
(00:32:48):
45% would certainly be more manageable, I think, for the ANC to try and form a coalition.
(00:32:54):
But South Africa, again, since the end of apartheid, has never had a coalition government.
(00:32:58):
It’s been the ANC with sole majority that entire time.
(00:33:01):
So it doesn’t have a lot of experience with this at the national level.
(00:33:05):
It does have some experience with coalition governments at regional or local levels,
(00:33:09):
and they tend not to work out.
(00:33:10):
They tend to collapse fairly quickly and be unstable.
(00:33:12):
So there’s concern.
(00:33:14):
that a coalition government here would collapse or be unstable.
(00:33:18):
The ANC is paying for a lot of things, perceptions of corruption, a lackluster economy.
(00:33:24):
There’s been a lot of violence that’s taken place during this campaign season and
(00:33:28):
an inordinate amount of violence that,
(00:33:31):
again,
(00:33:31):
is being kind of laid at the feet of the ANC,
(00:33:33):
which is the governing authority,
(00:33:35):
and has not been able to kind of…
(00:33:39):
could take control over this violence and clamp down on it.
(00:33:42):
So that’s just adding to perceptions that the party is stagnating.
(00:33:46):
And I don’t know that voters are intending to elect a different party.
(00:33:53):
And again, the opposition is going to be splintered.
(00:33:56):
And I don’t think there’s a chance,
(00:33:57):
there’s much of a chance of a coalition forming that excludes the ANC because the
(00:34:02):
opposition is so disparate.
(00:34:03):
Ideologically, it would be difficult for them to come together.
(00:34:06):
Um,
(00:34:07):
but I,
(00:34:07):
I do think there’s,
(00:34:08):
there’s definitely a desire to send a message to the party here that,
(00:34:12):
uh,
(00:34:12):
it has,
(00:34:12):
uh,
(00:34:13):
it is failing the South African people.
(00:34:15):
And I’m,
(00:34:15):
I’m no expert on this,
(00:34:16):
but that seems to be the,
(00:34:18):
uh,
(00:34:18):
the sense of a lot of people who are,
(00:34:20):
uh,
(00:34:20):
kind of analyzing what’s going on here.
(00:34:23):
Uh, thank you, Derek.
(00:34:23):
Uh,
(00:34:24):
let’s move on to our final two topics,
(00:34:25):
but let’s start with Ukraine where Putin has kind of signaled he might want a ceasefire,
(00:34:32):
maybe,
(00:34:32):
uh,
(00:34:33):
Yes,
(00:34:34):
there was a report in Reuters on Friday citing four Russian sources anonymous that
(00:34:39):
Putin was ready to is ready to halt the war in Ukraine along the current lines,
(00:34:46):
you know,
(00:34:46):
sort of recognize that the territory that Russia holds is the territory that Russia holds.
(00:34:51):
And there will be no, you know, that that it’s not going back to Ukraine.
(00:34:57):
putin didn’t confirm that report but he was in belarus and was questioned about it
(00:35:01):
by reporters and did opine that he thinks peace talks should resume uh without
(00:35:06):
confirming anything in the in the reuters report and there’s not much to go on
(00:35:09):
again these are anonymous sources uh from you know supposedly speaking on behalf of
(00:35:14):
vladimir putin who you know doesn’t have a lot of credibility in the west for or in
(00:35:18):
ukraine for obvious reasons
(00:35:20):
So I don’t know how much to make of this.
(00:35:23):
Probably, you know, it’s not worth making very much of it.
(00:35:26):
The Ukrainian government has had no,
(00:35:28):
you know,
(00:35:29):
sent out no indication that it would be willing to stop the war now in a way that
(00:35:35):
even tacitly recognizes that Russia is going to control the territory,
(00:35:39):
the Ukrainian territory that it controls.
(00:35:42):
You know,
(00:35:42):
I don’t think they would…
(00:35:44):
They would definitely not do formal recognition,
(00:35:46):
but even sort of just…
(00:35:48):
um you know making it seem like they are comfortable with russia holding that
(00:35:52):
territory i think is something it’s a bridge too far for the ukrainians uh so i you
(00:35:56):
know i don’t expect this to go anywhere i do think that negotiations should be
(00:36:01):
going on at some level but uh you know if you say that you’re you’re accused of
(00:36:06):
being an appeaser so let’s just leave it there and let’s talk about the united
(00:36:10):
states and its changing opinion perhaps on providing ukraine with long-range
(00:36:15):
weapons
(00:36:17):
Yes,
(00:36:18):
this has been a push over the last several weeks to allow the Ukrainians to use
(00:36:26):
long-range U.S.-made weapons to attack targets in Russia.
(00:36:29):
This is the guardrail that the Biden administration has put on the provision of
(00:36:33):
those weapons is that Ukraine can only use them to attack targets within the
(00:36:38):
internationally recognized borders of Ukraine.
(00:36:41):
The Ukrainians are pushing…
(00:36:43):
uh hard to be allowed to attack targets inside russia with these weapons they’ve
(00:36:47):
enlisted uh a number of european officials nato the secretary general of nato yen
(00:36:52):
stoltenberg uh earlier this week uh became you know uh the the latest person to uh
(00:36:58):
to sort of make this push uh emmanuel macron has been uh ringing this bells for a
(00:37:03):
little while and has given them given the ukrainians permission to use french
(00:37:07):
weapons if they want to to attack targets in russia
(00:37:10):
But the Biden administration had been kind of holding out in the same way that it
(00:37:13):
held out against Abrams tanks and F-16s.
(00:37:17):
And the pattern is always that they eventually give in.
(00:37:18):
What looks like this week,
(00:37:21):
Antony Blinken,
(00:37:22):
noted blues man and secretary of state,
(00:37:24):
suggested on Wednesday while he was in,
(00:37:28):
I think,
(00:37:28):
Bulgaria,
(00:37:29):
told reporters or made suggestions to reporters that,
(00:37:33):
you know,
(00:37:34):
we would probably be OK.
(00:37:36):
If the Ukrainians wanted to use U.S.
(00:37:38):
weapons to attack inside Russia, it’s up to them.
(00:37:41):
Really, they have to decide what targets they want to hit and we’ll go off of what they say.
(00:37:47):
So the indications are that this is going to this is going to start happening probably fairly soon.
(00:37:52):
We haven’t encouraged or enabled strikes outside of Ukraine yet.
(00:37:57):
But Ukraine,
(00:37:58):
as I’ve said before,
(00:37:59):
has to make its own decisions about the best way to effectively defend itself.
(00:38:04):
We’re going to make sure that it has the equipment it needs to do that.
(00:38:06):
Another hallmark of our support for Ukraine over these now more than two years has been to adapt.
(00:38:15):
As the conditions have changed,
(00:38:17):
as the battlefield has changed,
(00:38:18):
as what Russia does has changed in terms of how it’s pursuing its aggression,
(00:38:23):
escalation.
(00:38:24):
We’ve adapted and adjusted to, and I’m confident we’ll continue to do that.
(00:38:29):
There was a piece in the Washington Post that I think should raise some concerns for people about this.
(00:38:35):
Apparently,
(00:38:37):
the Ukrainians have attacked over the past week or so,
(00:38:42):
they’ve attacked two Russian radar sites that are apparently supporting the Russian
(00:38:49):
military in Ukraine,
(00:38:50):
but also serve as nuclear early warning stations.
(00:38:54):
You know, there are obvious reasons to be concerned about attacking sites like that.
(00:38:59):
If the Russians feel like their early detection capabilities are under threat,
(00:39:03):
they could put themselves on a higher state of nuclear alert,
(00:39:06):
which could,
(00:39:06):
you know,
(00:39:07):
raise the still admittedly slim possibility,
(00:39:11):
but uncomfortably,
(00:39:12):
you know,
(00:39:12):
potentially not as slim as we would like possibility of a nuclear exchange at some
(00:39:17):
point of some kind of,
(00:39:18):
you know,
(00:39:19):
accidental or mistaken possibility.
(00:39:21):
by the Russians that causes, you know, World War III.
(00:39:26):
So the U.S.
(00:39:27):
has been talking to the Ukrainians about,
(00:39:30):
you know,
(00:39:30):
attacking these sites and kind of urging them not to do it.
(00:39:34):
The Ukrainians say they have to because these are,
(00:39:36):
you know,
(00:39:37):
they’re supporting the Russian war effort in Ukraine.
(00:39:39):
And they haven’t managed to hit either of the facilities that they targeted,
(00:39:44):
but that’s with the weapons that they have at their disposal now.
(00:39:46):
If they start using presumably more advanced weapons
(00:39:49):
U.S.-made weapons, who knows what they could hit and who knows what the repercussions of that could be.
(00:39:56):
Let’s move on to Mexico, where there is a forthcoming election.
(00:40:01):
The time of AMLO is coming to an end,
(00:40:04):
and the era of Claudia Scheinbaum,
(00:40:08):
Pardo,
(00:40:09):
but I think she’s mostly referred to as Claudia Scheinbaum,
(00:40:12):
is emergent.
(00:40:15):
So let’s talk about this election, Derek.
(00:40:17):
Yeah, we’re going to do a little preview with Alex Zivina in a couple of days.
(00:40:22):
So I don’t want to dwell on this, but people should be aware that it’s happening on Sunday.
(00:40:27):
AMLO can’t run for re-election because that’s presidential terms.
(00:40:35):
You only get one term in Mexico.
(00:40:37):
So Claudia Scheinbaum, who…
(00:40:40):
has been mayor of Mexico City,
(00:40:42):
which is a sort of platform for people who want to run for president,
(00:40:48):
has been seen as a protege of AMLO’s.
(00:40:52):
They’re very close.
(00:40:54):
She’s the candidate of his Morena party.
(00:40:57):
Polling has given her an overwhelming, I mean, it would be shocking if she didn’t win on Sunday.
(00:41:04):
So, you know, I mean,
(00:41:06):
We’ll have to wait and see, I guess.
(00:41:07):
But every indication is that she is going to be elected and will sort of succeed
(00:41:14):
AMLO as his chosen kind of follower,
(00:41:19):
protege,
(00:41:20):
as I said.
(00:41:21):
She’s…
(00:41:23):
Got a bit of a different background from Amlo.
(00:41:26):
Their politics seem generally pretty simpatico, but she does have sort of an academic background.
(00:41:33):
She’s viewed, from what I can tell, as a bit less…
(00:41:38):
kind of off the cuff than AMLO.
(00:41:39):
So, you know, a bit more controlled, contained.
(00:41:42):
But generally speaking,
(00:41:44):
on a policy level,
(00:41:44):
I think,
(00:41:45):
you know,
(00:41:46):
you won’t see as many quotable things from her necessarily as AMLO is want to do.
(00:41:52):
But she will presumably continue to govern in much the same way on a policy level.
(00:41:59):
And of course,
(00:42:00):
as always,
(00:42:01):
great things are happening in Mexico City where Tenochtitlan,
(00:42:04):
the beautiful lake that Hernan Cortes found,
(00:42:08):
has been systematically destroyed over the last 500 years.
(00:42:12):
Yeah, I don’t want to make light of this, but it is bad.
(00:42:15):
It’s really bad.
(00:42:17):
It’s been reported in a number of outlets over the last few months, but EcoWatch.
(00:42:23):
had a good summary of it this week.
(00:42:25):
And Mexico City is basically in danger of running out of water.
(00:42:29):
It gets a sizable portion of its water from the Kutzamala water system.
(00:42:37):
And reservoirs, because of drought, they’re currently under what is called a heat dome.
(00:42:44):
The water, the reservoirs are historically emptying out.
(00:42:50):
They’ve hit historic lows.
(00:42:53):
And so perhaps as soon as June 26th, what the story says, they could be in danger.
(00:43:02):
That system could shut down and they could be in real danger of running out of water.
(00:43:06):
Now, most of Mexico City’s water does come from underground aquifers that have been
(00:43:14):
Kind of systematically destroyed, as Danny suggested, since the time of the conquistadors.
(00:43:20):
Essentially, the Spanish, when they came in, drained out the lakes and built these…
(00:43:30):
hard impervious surfaces on the surface that have been built upon and built upon
(00:43:36):
and built upon over the centuries.
(00:43:39):
And now like rainwater just doesn’t get through.
(00:43:41):
It doesn’t replenish the aquifers.
(00:43:43):
So they’re just being drained out systematically as well.
(00:43:47):
Another big issue is that the city’s water infrastructure is crumbling.
(00:43:51):
I think it loses like 40% of its water just to
(00:43:55):
This was at least in the EcoWatch piece, loses like 40% of its water to just leakage and waste.
(00:44:02):
Increasingly, as you might expect, given the water shortages, theft is becoming a big problem.
(00:44:08):
Black market sales of water are becoming a big problem.
(00:44:10):
So,
(00:44:11):
you know,
(00:44:12):
it’s a really dire circumstance for one of the biggest cities in the Western
(00:44:16):
Hemisphere and unclear.
(00:44:18):
Certainly, you know, whoever, certainly like Scheinbaum said,
(00:44:22):
wins uh she’s gonna have to deal with this uh as one of the first things i would
(00:44:26):
think of her uh presidency is it’s a potentially huge crisis thank you derek uh and
(00:44:33):
thank you everyone for listening and we will see you soon keep on rocking in the
(00:44:39):
free world bye bye
(00:45:00):
We’ll be right back.
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