The Occam’s Razor Explanation

The Occam’s Razor Explanation

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I’m working on a longer set of reflections on this remarkable electionand its remarkable outcome. Sometimes as writer you can feeloutclassed by the events you have to chronicle, and that’s how I’vebeen feeling the last two days. Such a moment calls for a Henry DavidThoreau, or an Ida B. Wells. We work-a-day political reporters don’tquite seem up to the task.

But two quick thoughts. One, the work of democracy never ends. I spentelection night with much of the Obama campaign field staff ofVirginia. When the networks called Virginia for Obama at 10:50pmeveryone erupted into joy, and then ten minutes later the place wentabsolutely nuts when Obama was elected president. By 11:30 the entirestaff was on an all-staff conference call getting their assignmentsfor the next day. With two very close congressional races yet to beresolved in the state, the organizers would have to be up early thenext day to start monitoring the count. The dedication exhibited bythe hundreds of Obama organizers who’ve worked for this campaign (mybrother among them) is just awe-inspiring.

Two, there’ll be lots of explanations of why Obama won, but for mymoney the best analysis so far comes from political scientist Andrew Gelman. He’srun lots of the data, and one of the most interesting results he’sfound is that there was a more-or-less uniform partisan swing towardsthe Democrats across the country of about 3 percent. While it might be the most unsatisfying explanation of a monumentally dramatic and riveting election, I think the single best explanation of what happened was this: the Republican party ran the economy into the ground, and independents trust the Democratic party to vouchsafe their economic interests more than they trust the Republicans.

If this is true, then the path to political success is actuallydelivering economic improvement and enhanced economic security for thebroad middle class of the country.

We cannot back down

We now confront a second Trump presidency.

There’s not a moment to lose. We must harness our fears, our grief, and yes, our anger, to resist the dangerous policies Donald Trump will unleash on our country. We rededicate ourselves to our role as journalists and writers of principle and conscience.

Today, we also steel ourselves for the fight ahead. It will demand a fearless spirit, an informed mind, wise analysis, and humane resistance. We face the enactment of Project 2025, a far-right supreme court, political authoritarianism, increasing inequality and record homelessness, a looming climate crisis, and conflicts abroad. The Nation will expose and propose, nurture investigative reporting, and stand together as a community to keep hope and possibility alive. The Nation’s work will continue—as it has in good and not-so-good times—to develop alternative ideas and visions, to deepen our mission of truth-telling and deep reporting, and to further solidarity in a nation divided.

Armed with a remarkable 160 years of bold, independent journalism, our mandate today remains the same as when abolitionists first founded The Nation—to uphold the principles of democracy and freedom, serve as a beacon through the darkest days of resistance, and to envision and struggle for a brighter future.

The day is dark, the forces arrayed are tenacious, but as the late Nation editorial board member Toni Morrison wrote “No! This is precisely the time when artists go to work. There is no time for despair, no place for self-pity, no need for silence, no room for fear. We speak, we write, we do language. That is how civilizations heal.”

I urge you to stand with The Nation and donate today.

Onwards,

Katrina vanden Heuvel
Editorial Director and Publisher, The Nation

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