The Republican base is just as likely to be outraged by a decision on the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act.
Ben AdlerTimothy Noah, writing in The New Republic, suggests that getting a Supreme Court ruling before the 2012 election could help President Obama’s re-election prospects, regardless of which way the Court rules.
Surely from a political standpoint, President Obama is smart to press the Supreme Court for a health care decision this coming June, no? If the Court upholds Obamacare then we will all be reminded that this sole accomplishment makes Obama the most consequential Democrat since Lyndon Johnson to occupy the Oval Office…. But slapping down a sitting president in a transparently partisan manner with a decision that did violence to eight decades of jurisprudence and that would literally cost American lives–yes, I think a “no” vote would be a pretty bad way for the Court to go–would be a fantastically effective way to "energize the base," as we say in Washington, and maybe rope in some independents, too.
But Noah is only looking at the liberal side of the ledger. The people who give the most thought to the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act are conservatives. And they are adamantly opposed to it. A ruling upholding health care reform would surely rile up the Republican base.
A ruling against the law would presumably only overturn the individual mandate, and would only win with a 5-4 margin. That gives Republicans have three powerful arguments to make to their base about the importance of the election: Obama does not respect the Constitution, it is very important to control future Supreme Court appointments, and it is important to control Congress and the White House to determine the fate of the rest of the law.
On policy grounds I think it was wise for Obama to ask for a ruling from the Court as soon as possible. Politically, I think it’s a toss-up.
Ben AdlerTwitterBen Adler reports on Republican and conservative politics and media for The Nation as a Contributing Writer. He previously covered national politics and policy as national editor of Newsweek.com at Newsweek, a staff writer at Politico, a reporter-researcher at The New Republic,and editor of CampusProgress.org at the Center for American Progress. Ben also writes regularly about architecture, urban issues and domestic social policy. Ben was the first urban leaders fellow, and later the first federal policy correspondent, at Next American City. He has been an online columnist, blogger and regular contributor for The American Prospect. He currently writes regularly for The Economist's Democracy in America blog, and MSNBC.com's Lean Forward. His writing has also appeared in Architect, Architectural Record,The Atlantic,Columbia Journalism Review, The Daily Beast, Democracy, Good, Grist, The Guardian, In These Times, New York, The Progressive, Reuters, Salon, The Washington Examiner and The Washington Monthly and has been reprinted in several books. Ben grew up in Brooklyn, NY and graduated from Wesleyan University. You can follow him on Twitter.