Politics / July 11, 2024

Donald Trump’s New Strategy: Act Normal

With the opposition in disarray, Trump and his campaign have begun exhibiting unusual restraint in hopes of expanding his support.

Chris Lehmann
Donald Trump Campaigns In Florida

Donald Trump arrives to speak at a campaign event at Trump National Doral Golf Club in Miami, Florida, on Tuesday, July 9, 2024.


(Eva Marie Uzcategui / Bloomberg)

Our great summer of political derangement is conspiring to create one of the most unlikely outcomes of all: Donald Trump cosplaying as a disciplined candidate. As President Joe Biden adopts the jury-rigged persona of a heroic national savior besieged by elites and running against polls and pundits, Trump is trying to execute a corresponding move toward at least the image of statesmanlike self-restraint.

It’s all bullshit, of course. Trump continues to speak warmly of extraconstitutional power grabs, to lie flagrantly about election fraud and immigrant crime, and to talk about using the presidency to visit revenge on his enemies. He’s sought to downplay right-wing abortion bans and the detailed authoritarian policy briefs in the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 playbook for his second term, but the xenophobic, paranoid, and antidemocratic particulars of his agenda are all on lavish display in the GOP’s 2024 platform.

At the same time, the mere existence of such a document is a significant Trumpian concession to normie politics. During the 2020 election, the Republican Party punted on assembling a platform at all, since its plain raison d’être was just to do whatever the hell Donald Trump wanted—and the incumbent president had made it abundantly clear by then that there was no reliable way for anyone to predict what that would be.

Like any major party nominee, Trump won’t be bound by the platform—which is one reason the mainstream media’s disquisitions on its “softened” language on abortion are so nonsensical. Trump himself said in the June debate with Joe Biden that he was adopting ambiguous language on the issue “because you have to get elected”—probably his only truthful statement that evening—which was a massive disclaimer to his hard-right base that they could safely disregard most of his faux-centrist rhetoric. The message clearly landed as intended, since most of the party’s ardent culture warriors fell promptly into line with the platform’s calculated evasions on abortion. Yes, Trump’s former vice president, Mike Pence, has protested the platform’s silence on a national abortion ban—but he doesn’t exactly loom large in the MAGA pantheon.

Since the great windfall of Biden’s debate performance and the ensuing Democratic agita over his suitability as the party’s presidential standard-bearer, Team Trump has embarked on a series of small but significant adjustments to its campaign messaging under the expansive mandate contained in that simple campaign formula “because you have to get elected.” Headlining that shift was Trump’s clumsy disavowal of Project 2025 on Truth Social. Like his pseudo-pivots on abortion, the candidate’s claim to “know nothing” about the far-reaching plan to remake the executive branch into a permanent MAGA franchise was a complete falsehood—Republican strategists themselves called the maneuver “preposterous.” Yet this lie, too, is meant to broaden Trump’s electoral appeal in a campaign now tilting dramatically in his favor. Here, too, the proof is in the party’s swift and eager capitulation: lickspittle vice presidential hopefuls J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio rushed to assure an electorate justly repelled by the provisions of Project 2025 that Trump will be in no way bound by its strictures. If you believe that to be the case for an endeavor that involves more than 200 former Trump administration officials, then I’ve got some bootleg DVDs of Hillbilly Elegy to sell you.

Still, the truth value of Trump’s utterances is less revealing than the political logic behind them. Even with Trump’s post-debate surge in the polls, he and his advisers are well aware that his base isn’t big enough to deliver him the presidency. Trump’s overtures toward the center, however strained and utterly insincere, are meant to broaden and solidify his appeal beyond the MAGA cult. According to The Cook Political Report, Trump is already enjoying a historic surge of support among traditional Democratic constituencies; Black voters poll 21 percent for the 45th president, and Hispanics and young voters each show 41 percent support. As Cook analyst Dave Wasserman said on Twitter (or, if I must, X), these numbers are “incompatible w/ any plausible Dem win scenario.”

To keep such trends in line, Trump has to be sure not to scare off these pivotal voters—and to bring more like them on board. “Trump knows he needs to win over more men, especially Black and Hispanic voters, without scaring off more women,” write Axios politics fanboys Jim Van De Hei and Mike Allen in a breakdown of the new Trump initiatives. That’s the central mandate in nailing down the leads he already enjoys in the seven swing states likely to decide the election—Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona. And that’s why, for all the traditional MAGA bluster about immigration and trade, the GOP platform is also narrowcasted to the constituencies likely to move the needle Trumpward in swing states.

Here’s how Van De Hei and Allen lay things out in their trademark semaphoric prose style: “The Trump-orchestrated platform adopted this week by the Republican National Committee targets very specific groups in these states—most notably Rust Belt, working-class, white voters … plus security-focused moms who are skeptical of Trump’s style but care about the border and crime … Hispanic, working-class men … and Nevada bartenders angered by high taxes on tips.”

These changes have been accompanied by notable shifts in Trump’s rhetorical style. While his Truth Social entries still occasionally pop off on Biden’s “incompetence,” Trump hasn’t waded directly into the raging controversy over Biden’s viability as a candidate. He’s mostly posting fawning interviews with the right-wing press, strong poll numbers, and (since he’s still Trump, after all) complaints about how Fox News polls shortchange his actual appeal. In his recent Doral, Florida, rally he delivered some standard WTF Trumpisms—callouts to Hannibal Lecter, broadsides against electric cars, and the inflation-themed gripe that “we don’t eat bacon anymore.” But he didn’t fulminate at length about his legal martyrdom, threaten violence, or otherwise present as Steve Bannon’s intellectual understudy. He also teased his pending selection of a vice-presidential nominee—something that a garden-variety presidential candidate would also be doing ahead of his nominating convention. None of this is to say, obviously, that Trump is any less the unhinged authoritarian menace he’s been over the past nine years—but he’s clearly heeding the counsel of advisers to take a creditable stab at playing a normie candidate on TV.

And the sad truth is, with the prodigious advantages gifted to him by a Democratic leadership caste in free fall, that’s likely all that’s required for a runaway Trump victory in November. As Hannibal Lecter might well have said, Donald Trump is poised to eat Joe Biden for breakfast.

Can we count on you?

In the coming election, the fate of our democracy and fundamental civil rights are on the ballot. The conservative architects of Project 2025 are scheming to institutionalize Donald Trump’s authoritarian vision across all levels of government if he should win.

We’ve already seen events that fill us with both dread and cautious optimism—throughout it all, The Nation has been a bulwark against misinformation and an advocate for bold, principled perspectives. Our dedicated writers have sat down with Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders for interviews, unpacked the shallow right-wing populist appeals of J.D. Vance, and debated the pathway for a Democratic victory in November.

Stories like these and the one you just read are vital at this critical juncture in our country’s history. Now more than ever, we need clear-eyed and deeply reported independent journalism to make sense of the headlines and sort fact from fiction. Donate today and join our 160-year legacy of speaking truth to power and uplifting the voices of grassroots advocates.

Throughout 2024 and what is likely the defining election of our lifetimes, we need your support to continue publishing the insightful journalism you rely on.

Thank you,
The Editors of The Nation

Chris Lehmann

Chris Lehmann is the DC Bureau chief for The Nation and a contributing editor at The Baffler. He was formerly editor of The Baffler and The New Republic, and is the author, most recently, of The Money Cult: Capitalism, Christianity, and the Unmaking of the American Dream (Melville House, 2016).

More from The Nation

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally at the Ellipse in Washington, DC.

Against Impossible Double Standards, Harris Aced Her Closing Argument Against Impossible Double Standards, Harris Aced Her Closing Argument

She has another week, and so does Trump. But comparing her excellent Ellipse speech to Trump’s Madison Square Garden satyricon is absurd.

Joan Walsh

Trump addresses a crowd on a large screen in the packed Madison Square Garden.

Trump’s Rally Was a Desecration of Madison Square Garden Trump’s Rally Was a Desecration of Madison Square Garden

Under billionaire James Dolan, the ties between Madison Square Garden and New York City’s working class were already fraying. Then he gave the stadium’s keys to Trump.

Dave Zirin

In the foreground, a

Peering Into the Minds of the Moderate White Women Who Might Just Save Us From Trump Peering Into the Minds of the Moderate White Women Who Might Just Save Us From Trump

Once Kamala Harris became the nominee, a significant number of white women shifted their support to her. Can she close the deal?

Amy Littlefield

Supporters of former US president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrive for a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden in New York on October 27, 2024.

My Long, Strange Trip to Madison Square Garden to Meet the Trumpies My Long, Strange Trip to Madison Square Garden to Meet the Trumpies

Trump supporters told me repeatedly that Trump loves them. How can so many people believe this?

Katha Pollitt

Former New York governor Andrew Cuomo: a white guy.

Andrew Cuomo Is Not Black Andrew Cuomo Is Not Black

But he’s hoping no one notices as he tries to crowbar his way back into power.

Column / Alexis Grenell

Elon Musk, Republican presidential nominee former president Donald Trump and his running mate, Senator JD Vance, talk to reporters back stage during a campaign rally at the Butler Farm Show grounds on October 5, 2024 in Butler, Pennsylvania.

JD Vance Is the Future of MAGA JD Vance Is the Future of MAGA

Even before votes were cast, the mantle of election denial passed from Donald Trump to to his running mate.

Chris Lehmann