New York City Mayor Eric Adams has been indicted on four federal counts of bribery, wire fraud, and solicitation of foreign donations. The indictment was unsealed this morning by prosecutors for the Southern District of New York. Based on the allegations in the indictment, it would appear that Adams was bought by Turkish nationals back when he was merely the Brooklyn borough president, and those foreign actors believed they were getting in on the ground floor of corrupting a future American president.

At core, Adams allegedly violated a very clear and very basic law: He knowingly took campaign contributions from foreign nationals. American politicians are not allowed to take money from foreign actors, for the obvious reason that such contributions could make politicians beholden to foreign influence. Adams took money from Turkish nationals like he was running for mayor of Istanbul, not New York City. And when the Turkish nationals needed a favor, as they did when they were trying to get their consulate up and running without passing basic fire safety checks, Adams was there for them, allegedly pressuring the fire commissioner to sign off on their building without a full inspection.

Adams did this knowingly, which is a key point in the prosecution of these types of crimes. Much of the evidence presented in the indictment comes from Adams’s own text messages, or those of his staff. It would appear that Adams and his co-conspirators fell for the false gospel of “deletion,” thinking that deleting text messages actually makes them go away. At one point, Adams and a staffer had this exchange:

[T]he Adams Staffer texted ADAMS, “To be o[n the]safe side Please Delete all messages you send me.” ADAMS responded, “Always do.”

In another criminal vignette, an Adams staffer voluntarily spoke to the FBI, but she went to the bathroom during the meeting and “deleted the encrypted messaging applications she had used to communicate with ADAMS,” per the indictment. This is evidence not merely of incompetence but of a guilty conscience. Adams, and his staff, knew what they were doing was wrong.

What should really piss New Yorkers off is that Adams did this to defraud New York by gaining access to public funds. New York has a system where small-dollar donations to political campaigns are “matched” by up to $2,000 from the city’s taxpayers. Adams not only took money from foreign investors; he also structured those payments (through a series of “straw men”—namely, American citizens and green-card holders who donated to Adams and were then reimbursed by Turkish nationals) so that they were small enough to be eligible for public matching funds. So, for instance, a $10,000 donation from a Turkish university was split up into multiple $2,000 payments, all of which were eligible for public matching funds.

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Adams denies all of these allegations, calling them “lies” in a statement he released on video last night. But “lies” is not a legal defense. When Adams has to defend himself in a court of law—instead of in the Law & Order episode playing out in his head—his most likely defense will be to say that he didn’t know where all the money was coming from, and to blame his staff for soliciting illegal campaign contributions.

The problem with that defense is going to be the fact that Adams didn’t just take money from Turkish nationals for his campaign; he also took a slew of trips and vacations, all over the globe, paid for by his far-off benefactors. There is one particularly hilarious exchange between an Adams’s staffer and the person in Turkey responsible for booking Adams’s free or discounted trips that is too perfect not to share:

On June 22, 2021, ADAMS, through the Adams Staffer, requested that the Airline Manager book flights to Istanbul for ADAMS. In order to conceal the favorable treatment, the Adams Staffer requested that the Airline Manager charge ADAMS what would appear to be a “real” price:

Adams Staffer: How much does he owe? Please, let them call me and I will make the payment.

Airline Manager: It is very expensive because it is last minute. I am working on a discount

Adams Staffer: Okay. Thank you.

Airline Manager: I am going to charge $50

…

Adams Staffer: No

Airline Manager: That would work wouldn’t it

Adams Staffer: No, dear. $50? What? Quote a proper price.

Airline Manager: How much should I charge? 🙂

Adams Staffer: His every step is being watched right now. $1,000 or so. Let it be somewhat real. We don’t want them to say he is flying for free. At the moment, the media’s attention is on Eric.

ADAMS paid approximately $ 1,100 each for roundtrip economy tickets on the Turkish Airline for himself and Adams’s Partner, which were immediately upgraded to business class at no cost. Had ADAMS purchased business class tickets on the open market, they would have cost more than $15,000 total.

The indictment is full of this stuff. It’s going to be very hard for Adams to argue that he didn’t know that he was buying economy-class tickets yet flying in business class.

It is not necessary for prosecutors to show what Adams’s Turkish patrons got out of this arrangement, but, in addition to the fire-inspector stuff, what they appear to have been buying is influence. The people funneling money to Adams seemed to truly believe that he would be a major political player, perhaps even president of the United States, someday. I can almost imagine Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan regarding Vladmir Putin’s complete ownership of Donald Trump with jealousy and saying, “I’ve got to get me one of those.”

While it is comforting to know that foreign malefactors who seek to influence our elections have no better political prognostication skills than Nate Silver, Bret Stephens, or The Wall Street Journal, it’s disturbing to see just how little the mayor of one of the wealthiest cities on the planet could be bought for. On the face of the indictment, Adams sold himself—and sold out his city—for: airline tickets, swanky hotel rooms, and several million dollars of campaign contributions. For all of Adams’s self-proclaimed “swagger,” he turned out to be a relatively cheap date. Former New York City Mayors Jimmy Walker and John Lindsay must be rolling in their gilded graves.

Adams is, of course, now entitled to the best defense Turkey can buy, and the legal process will play out over the next year or so. It will be interesting to see just how much Adams borrows from the playbook of the king of indictments, Donald Trump. He’s already saying that he’s being indicted because he stood up for New Yorkers, which is a play on Trump’s famous “they’re coming after me to get to you” line of bullcrap. I imagine we’ll be treated to allegations of “lawfare” from Adams’s team.

Of course, the thing keeping Trump out of jail is not his legal arguments but his capture of six Republican justices on the Supreme Court. I’m not sure that Adams has those kinds of aces up his sleeve. US District Judge Dale Ho will be presiding over the trial, and that’s fun because Ho is a former director of the ACLU. Adams (a Democrat) caught one of the most liberal judges available… let’s see how that works out for him.

Should Adams face conviction, he’ll likely appeal, and that appeal could be taken by the Republican-controlled Supreme Court, which has recently come out in favor of public bribery and corruption. I don’t, however, think that the six conservatives will intervene to save Adams, even though he’ll be arguing that his Turkish friends merely paid him a “gratuity” for his public service. We know Supreme Court justices love taking free trips, but structuring foreign campaign donations to get access to public matching funds should be a bridge too far, even for them.

Adams’s best legal option might be to go full MAGA, hope Trump is elected in November, and beg for a pardon. It’s worked before for people like disgraced Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich, who received a presidential pardon. Trump also pardoned an aide, Paul Manafort, who was convicted on charges of peddling foreign influence. Adams also happens to be Black, and we know Trump thinks pardoning Black folks who sufficiently kiss his ass counts as “outreach” to the Black community.

If Trump loses in November, Adams is likely up the Bosphorus without a paddle. The mayor and his team were apparently so sloppy with their communications that this shouldn’t be a hard case for prosecutors to win if Adams doesn’t have Trump judges employed in his defense.

Adams should, of course, resign as mayor and focus on what legal defense he can muster. But I don’t expect him to. New Yorkers made a terrible choice for mayor, and now Adams will force them to live out that choice until the end of his term.

Speaking of terrible choices made by New Yorkers, Rudy Giuliani was disbarred (again) today. I’m starting to wonder if people who are willing and able to pay $5,000 a month for a one-bedroom in Kips Bay that’s the size of an industrial dumpster maybe aren’t making the wisest decisions.