World / November 13, 2024

The View from Moscow

It’s complicated.

Fred Weir
Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and US President Donald Trump shake hands before a meeting in Helsinki, on July 16, 2018.(Brendan Smialowski / AFP via Getty Images)

Moscow—Vladimir Putin’s alleged ability to manipulate US elections in favor of his secret soul brother Donald Trump has been an enduring meme in American media discourse for almost a decade. So, as one of the few correspondents for a US newspaper still based in Moscow, I was a bit surprised when absolutely no one called me up from North America in the wake of Trump’s big electoral victory to ask what the Russians are thinking about it. Are they dancing in the streets? Is Putin looking jubilant, and likely hatching schemes to exploit this new asset in the Kremlin’s service?

It’s complicated, would have been my cautious answer. There is no doubt that the Russians remain deeply fascinated with US politics, and the unusual, even disorderly spectacles of the past several months held the full attention, often laced with schadenfreude, of both the official press and the more freewheeling social media. The Kremlin clearly believes that the US is its main adversary in the world. Russian public opinion, once very pro-American, has turned surprisingly unfriendly.

A lot has changed since 2016, when the entire State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, famously erupted in a spontaneous standing ovation at the news that Trump had defied the odds and defeated Hillary Clinton—who once described Putin as behaving “like Hitler.” Then, most of Russia’s foreign policy experts supposed that Trump would follow through on his vague pledges to “get along” with Putin and put an end to what they saw as an abnormal freeze in US-Russia relations that had followed the Ukrainian Maidan revolt and Russia’s subsequent annexation of Crimea.

The most important difference from those days is that the Russians have already endured one full White House term of Trump, which one Russian diplomat who deals with US relations told me was “the worst four years of our lives.” Moscow had hoped that Trump might discuss capping NATO’s eastward expansion, and perhaps nudge Kyiv to implement the Minsk Accords. That would have enabled Ukraine to peacefully reintegrate its territory [minus Crimea], and maintain its sovereignty, albeit as a neutral buffer zone between Russia and the West, something like Finland during the Cold War. Those, at least, were the Russian hopes.

Instead, Trump ramped up sanctions on Russia and delivered lethal military aid to Ukraine. Russian foreign policy hands recall the 2018 Helsinki Summit with a shudder. The idea in Moscow was that the meeting might end the downward spiral in relations by reaching some broad understandings on tension-generating issues like arms control, Syria and Ukraine. Instead, the US media’s obsession with Trump’s apparent acceptance of Putin’s word that Russia hadn’t interfered in the US election, instead of his believing US intelligence agencies, became the only takeaway the summit is remembered for. Viewed through Moscow’s lens, Trump’s first term was a nonstop clown show that made everything so much worse than Clinton’s categorical and predictable hostility could possibly have done.

That goes far in explaining why official Moscow displayed little reaction to Trump’s stunning comeback. Putin took a couple days before offering congratulations, and he did so at the Valdai Conference, before an audience of international academics and journalists. As for holding talks, especially about Ukraine, Putin cautiously indicated that he was open to hearing what the man has to say. Russia’s foreign ministry issued a statement saying it has “no illusions” that Trump will change what it views as the wired-in anti-Russia stance of US foreign policy.

The other remarkable shift is that Russia has abandoned all previous hopes of repairing relations with the West, or at least with the United States. Russian diplomatic resources are now largely devoted to developing ties with what is referred to, without much exaggeration, as the “Global Majority.” The main vehicle for that is the BRICS+, an economically focused association that’s doubled in size in the past year, and has dozens of African, Latin American and Asian countries lining up to join. The group held a lavish summit in Kazan, Russia, in October. While most of its participants are not ready to sign on to the full anti-Western agenda favored by Russia and Iran, they are friendly to Russia, neutral on the Ukraine war, and eager to pursue the kind of economic ties that are already confounding US-led sanctions against Russia and others.

As for the war in Ukraine, it’s a very painful reality, and the Kremlin might indeed welcome a bit of outside help to solve it. Back in September, at a meeting of Far Eastern countries in Vladivostok, Putin appealed to powers like India, China, and Brazil, to step in and offer terms of mediation. Otherwise, the Russians seem grimly determined to win the war on the battlefield, and there’s nothing in current news reports to suggest they won’t eventually succeed. No one in Moscow appears to be waiting for Donald Trump’s intervention.

I recently asked Andrei Klimov, deputy chair of the international committee of Russia’s upper house of parliament, if he thought Trump’s victory would make any difference for Russia’s foreign policy calculations. He said it certainly would, because where Joe Biden was a “pro-Western” leader, Trump is a “pro-American” one. He left me to decipher that, but it didn’t sound like he believes anything will get easier.

We cannot back down

We now confront a second Trump presidency.

There’s not a moment to lose. We must harness our fears, our grief, and yes, our anger, to resist the dangerous policies Donald Trump will unleash on our country. We rededicate ourselves to our role as journalists and writers of principle and conscience.

Today, we also steel ourselves for the fight ahead. It will demand a fearless spirit, an informed mind, wise analysis, and humane resistance. We face the enactment of Project 2025, a far-right supreme court, political authoritarianism, increasing inequality and record homelessness, a looming climate crisis, and conflicts abroad. The Nation will expose and propose, nurture investigative reporting, and stand together as a community to keep hope and possibility alive. The Nation’s work will continue—as it has in good and not-so-good times—to develop alternative ideas and visions, to deepen our mission of truth-telling and deep reporting, and to further solidarity in a nation divided.

Armed with a remarkable 160 years of bold, independent journalism, our mandate today remains the same as when abolitionists first founded The Nation—to uphold the principles of democracy and freedom, serve as a beacon through the darkest days of resistance, and to envision and struggle for a brighter future.

The day is dark, the forces arrayed are tenacious, but as the late Nation editorial board member Toni Morrison wrote “No! This is precisely the time when artists go to work. There is no time for despair, no place for self-pity, no need for silence, no room for fear. We speak, we write, we do language. That is how civilizations heal.”

I urge you to stand with The Nation and donate today.

Onwards,

Katrina vanden Heuvel
Editorial Director and Publisher, The Nation

Fred Weir

Fred Weir is a longtime Moscow-based journalist and Russia correspondent of the Boston-based Christian Science Monitor. He is co-author of Revolution From Above: The Demise of the Soviet System.

More from The Nation

This photo, taken on February 9, 2012, shows former Washington Post correspondent Elizabeth Becker standing next to a photo of former Khmer Rouge leader Pol Pot during her photo exhibition at Bophana center in Phnom Penh.

Warning From the Past Warning From the Past

In a new film, journalists confront a dictator.

Elizabeth Becker

Joe Biden Benjamin Netanyahu

The Case Against Joe Biden for Complicity in Genocide The Case Against Joe Biden for Complicity in Genocide

The ICC has applied for an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu. But Israel’s assault on Gaza has been made possible by US support.

James Bamford

Republican presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump visits The Great Commoner cafe while Hamtramck, MI mayor Amer Ghalib stands to his right on November 01, 2024 in Dearborn, Michigan.

Gazans Heard Trump's Promises. Now They Want Him to Keep Them. Gazans Heard Trump's Promises. Now They Want Him to Keep Them.

Trump made a direct pitch to end the war on Gaza. The people still living there were listening.

Ruwaida Kamal Amer

Donald Trump listens as Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during their joint news conference at the White House, February 15, 2017.

The Fallout of Biden’s Middle East Policy Is Now Trump’s Responsibility The Fallout of Biden’s Middle East Policy Is Now Trump’s Responsibility

In Trump’s hands, the country's diplomatic strategy in the Middle East can only get worse.

Juan Cole

Kemi Badenoch in front of a podium.

The New Face of British Conservatism is Black—and Female The New Face of British Conservatism is Black—and Female

The London-born daughter of Nigerian parents presides over the ruins of 14 years of Tory rule. Can her brand of nativism-lite bring the party out of the wilderness?

K. Biswas

American flags on a makeshift memorial honor Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers killed in action on Independence Square in Kyiv, Ukraine, on November 5, 2024.

Behind Closed Doors, Ukraine Anxiously Watched the US Election Unfold Behind Closed Doors, Ukraine Anxiously Watched the US Election Unfold

Ukrainian officials maintain an optimistic, bipartisan approach to the US, but in private, many Ukrainians are pessimistic about an increasingly bleak war and the US role in it.

Carol Schaeffer